If the results of the 2022 national and local elections are to be used as a gauge, the chance of victory is high for incumbents running for the same position as well as those belonging to a major party or political alliance.
An analysis of the how the previous elections turned out show that overall, 69 percent of reelectionists were proclaimed winners after the 2022 campaign for provincial and municipal posts in Catanduanes.
While only two out of every three incumbent councilors won, the winning percentage was higher among incumbent mayors and vice mayors (73 percent) and those running for provincial positions (75 percent).
The same results also disclosed that eight of the 10 incumbents belonging to the major political parties in 2022 (Nationalist People’s Coalition, PDP-Laban and Lakas-NUCD) who fought for top provincial posts won their reelection bids for an 80-percent success rate.
At the municipal level, the candidate’s chance of having their hands raised dropped to a still considerable 66 percent, with 73 of the 103 major party members savoring the sweet smell of victory.
Some distance below the ladder are women candidates, who performed better than independents in the 2022 elections. While none of the four female bets who ran for provincial posts won that year, four of 10 aspirants for mayor and vice mayor tasted success while 18 out of the 40 women candidates for Sangguniang Bayan member were declared winners.
Stuck together at the bottom are barangay officials who ran for higher posts in 2022, with only 18 out of 40 winning their races for 41 percent, and independent candidates, with just 28 of 145 aspirants gaining seats for a paltry 19 percent performance rating.