About 10 to 16 tropical cyclones are expected within the Philippine area of responsibility in the second half of this year, with two or three predicted for July, the nation’s weather agency reported recently.
In its Climate Outlook for July to December 2024, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said two to three tropical disturbances are also expected for each of the next three months, with one or two storms for November and December.
This month, two tropical depressions – Butchoy and Carina – formed in the PAR last week, with the former causing heavy rain and flooding in some areas.
Following the official declaration of the end of El Niño, PAGASA said ENSO-neutral conditions is now present over the tropical Pacific, with a 50 percent chance of La Niña developing in the last three months of 2024.
Near normal rainfall is predicted for Catanduanes for July to September, with above normal rainfall seen in the last quarter.
Records of the PAGASA Virac Synoptic Station in San Isidro Village showed that from a low of 49.5 mm in February, followed by 125.1 mm in March and another low at 58.2mm in April, monthly precipitation has increased to 138.6mm in May and 207.7mm last June.
The number of dry days per month for Catanduanes is expected at an average of 16 for July to September but will drop to an average of 12 for the last three months of the year as the rainy season goes into high gear.