Catanduanes Province faces significantly dry weather as this year’s El Niño phenomenon continues its approach and steadily intensifies.
PAGASA, the Philippine weather bureau, says El Niño conditions are already present in the tropical Pacific, with the onset initially detected in late May and the latest advisory issued on 9 June 2026.
El Niño was first detected when the sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific reached 0.5 degrees centigrade above normal, which is key for detecting El Niño onset.
El Niño events occur every 2 to 7 years and normally last 9-12 months, peaking around December.
The term “El Niño” — Spanish for “the Christ child” — originated in 19th-century Peru when fishermen named the warm ocean current that appeared around Christmas time after the newborn Christ.
PAGASA says Catanduanes is one of 36 provinces expected to experience dry spells by December 2026, with the island potentially enduring prolonged drought conditions extending into early 2027.
According to PAGASA, the difference between a “dry spell” and a “drought” is based on amount of rainfall and duration: A dry spell is declared when an area has three consecutive months of “below-normal” rainfall — 41-80 percent of the long-term average — or two consecutive months of “way-below-normal” rainfall — less than 40 percent of the long-term average. A drought is declared when an area has three consecutive months of way-below-normal rainfall, or five consecutive months of below-normal rainfall.
In short, a drought is more severe and more prolonged, while a dry spell is shorter and less severe, in PAGASA’s classification scheme.
The timing is particularly concerning for the province, known for its vulnerability to typhoons and rugged terrain. While the early phase of the current El Niño — June-August 2026 — may bring enhanced southwest monsoon rains to western Philippines, Catanduanes’ location in the eastern part of the archipelago means it will likely experience drier-than-usual conditions with below-normal rainfall.
Agricultural Impact: Rice, Coconuts, Abaca Threatened
Catanduanes’ agricultural sector, which employs thousands of local families, faces severe threats. The province’s rice fields, concentrated in lowland areas near Virac and San Andres, depend heavily on consistent rainfall. With PAGASA forecasting rainfall levels 21-60 percent below normal for at least three consecutive months, farmers face possible crop failures.
Coconut farming, another critical industry in Catanduanes, will also suffer. Coconut trees require regular irrigation, and prolonged drought reduces nut production and quality.
Abaca also does not tolerate dry spells well. Abaca is a moisture-loving plant that prefers high humidity — near 80 percent — and ample, consistent rainfall. Prolonged dry spells degrade abaca fiber quality and reduce yields.
The Department of Agriculture has already allocated ₱725 million nationally to lessen El Niño’s impact, but local officials warn that Catanduanes’ remote location and limited irrigation infrastructure make preparation challenging.
Water Supply Crisis Looms
The island’s water resources are vulnerable. Many barangays rely on rainwater collection systems and small reservoirs that already show signs of depletion. During a dry spell these sources become critically scarce. The combination of below-normal rainfall and rising temperatures — expected to be warmer than normal during peak dry season — will accelerate water evaporation.
Local government units in Virac, San Andres, and elsewhere reportedly are urging residents to practice water conservation immediately. Household water storage, reduced bathing frequency, and prioritizing water for essential needs are recommended.
Health Risks Mount
The Department of Health warns that El Niño brings increased health risks. In Catanduanes, residents face heightened exposure to dengue, cholera, diarrhea, heat stroke, dehydration, influenza, and leptospirosis, a bacterial, flu-like condition.
Less water means that communities will struggle with proper hygiene, increasing disease transmission.
Hotter temperatures during the dry season also pose direct risks, particularly for elderly residents and outdoor workers. The island’s limited healthcare facilities may face increased pressure if heat-related illnesses surge.
Fisheries and Coastal Communities
Catanduanes’ fishing communities face indirect but significant impacts. This is because drought affects freshwater streams that feed into coastal waters, altering marine ecosystems and potentially reducing fish catches.
Government Response and Community Preparation
Task Force El Niño has warned that approximately 80 provinces nationwide may experience adverse effects, sparing only two provinces. Currently, 51 provinces are already affected, with dry conditions confirmed in Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur.
Task Force El Niño is the Philippines’ national interagency body created to coordinate the government’s response to El Niño and its impacts — especially dry spells, water shortages, food security risks, health issues, and public safety threats.
Locally, officials in Catanduanes are expected to mobilize emergency response teams, identify water distribution points, and coordinate with the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council.
What Residents Can Do
Catanduanes residents should store water responsibly in containers; reduce non-essential water usage; and monitor local weather updates from PAGASA. Residents also should prepare for potential crop losses and adjust farming schedules. And they should seek medical attention for heat-related symptoms
As El Niño intensifies through October-December 2026, potentially reaching “Super El Niño” intensity, Catanduanes will stand at the forefront of this climate problem. The province’s resilience will depend on early preparation, community cooperation, and sustained government support through the coming months of drought.
The question isn’t whether El Niño will impact Catanduanes — it’s how well the island can adapt to survive unscathed one of the driest seasons in recent history.
Bryce McIntyre, PhD, resides in San Andres. He holds a doctoral degree from Stanford University, Palo Alto, California, USA.
Claude AI was employed in research for this article.