The Bicol region is likely to suffer drought along with flooding, with the entire country forecast to suffer a total of P286.8 billion in losses from the impact of the Super El Nino from late 2026 to early 2027, the Department of Science and Technology’s PAGASA reported last week.
In ex ante financial loss analysis estimating both direct and indirect impacts to farmers and fisherfolk, including livelihood decline and unemployment under a severe or Super El Niño event in 2026-27, direct losses from crop failures and fishery declines are foreseen to reach a total of P77.8 billion.
On the other hand, indirect losses driven by unemployment, disrupted supply chains, and inflationary effects would amount to P209 billion, the agency said, with the combined impact rivalling the devastation of the 1997-98 Super El Niño and pushing millions into poverty and destabilizing food security.
In an advisory in the first week of June, the DOST-PAGASA reported that El Niño conditions are now present in the tropical Pacific, with the observed relative sea surface temperature anomaly (rSSTA) reaching the +0.5°C threshold in May 2026.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and is characterized by warmer-than-average SSTs in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific and generally, cooler-than-average sea surface temperature over the Philippine Sea.
El Niño typically increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall conditions across much of the country, raising the risk of dry spells and drought, particularly in vulnerable areas.
DOST-PAGASA strongly advised all government agencies and the general public to take appropriate preparedness and response measures to mitigate their potential impacts, particularly in areas vulnerable to heavy rainfall and floods during Habagat or Southwest Monsson season and those areas prone to below-normal rainfall conditions.
It cited historical analogs (1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16) showing recurring severe droughts and economic shocks. Super El Niño events recur every 10 to 15 years, each inflicting significant agricultural and economic losses, with projected nationwide losses of P286.8 billion (US$5.5 billion) in direct and indirect impacts.
The Philippines, situated at the western Pacific rim, is among the most vulnerable nations due to its monsoon-dependent agriculture, import-reliant energy system, and governance challenges.
Southern Luzon (Calabarzon) and the Bicol Region face erratic rainfall patterns during Super El Niño, alternating between drought and typhoon-induced floods.
In 2015-16, Calabarzon recorded water stress in Laguna and Batangas, while Bicol experienced alternating crop failures and flood damage, PAGASA said.
The precipitation recorded by PAGASA Virac Synoptic Station in the last three months of 2026 appear to be omens of drought, with the actual rainfall for March, April and May the lowest for the respective months for the past seven years.
Data provided by Chief Meteorological Officer Juan Pantino Jr. show that only 44.6 millimeters of rain fell in the facility’s rain gauge last month.
This is just several drops over the 42.2 mm of precipitation recorded last April 2026, the same records indicate,
The lack of rain last month is stark when compared with the May rainfall of the past six years: May 2020, 232.2 mm; May 2021, 194.5 mm; May 2022, 124.9 mm; May 2023, 158.7 mm; May 2024, 138.6 mm; and May 2025, 249.1 mm.
The May 2026 rainfall is less than 25 percent of the six-year average of 183 mm and less then 18 percent of last year’s May precipitation.