Fifteen Luzon provinces are now experiencing drought conditions while 32 others, including Catanduanes, are in a dry spell, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) announced last week.
In an assessment of the country’s climate last month, the weather agency said that rainfall in March 2026 was way below normal in 44 provinces, including all Bicol provinces.
It disclosed that precipitation fell 30 percent below normal in Catanduanes, as the Virac Synoptic Station recorded only 51.6 millimeters of rain last March.
The average rainfall for the month for the Virac Synoptic Station is 177.2 mm.
For the first 19 days of April, the number of areas affected by the lack of rain increased to all 85 provinces of the country.
PAGASA data showed Catanduanes had the ‘highest’ precipitation among the Bicol provinces, with 6.1mm or 4.5 percent of normal rainfall of 140.5 mm.
Albay had only 0.5 mm, Masbate 0.6 mm, Sorsogon 1 mm, Camarines Sur 1.7 mm and Camarines Norte 4.4 mm.
According to the weather agency, a dry condition exists when an area has below normal (21% to 50% less than the average) rainfall for two consecutive months.
An area is in a dry spell when it endures below normal rainfall conditions for three consecutive months or way below normal (more than 60% reduction from the average) for two consecutive months.
On the other hand, drought condition is declared when an area suffers from below normal rainfall for five consecutive months or way below normal rainfall for three consecutive months.
Fifteen Luzon provinces are assessed to be affected by drought while a dry spell is occurring in 22 Luzon provinces (including all six in Bicol), three (3) in Visayas and seven (7) in Mindanao.
Last week, PAGASA raised the El Nino Alert, after most climate models and experts suggested a 79% chance of El Niño emerging in June-July-August (JJA) 2026 season and is likely to persist until early 2027.
El Niño is a warm phase of ENSO and is characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Philippine Sea and warmer-than-average SSTs in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific (CEEP).
During an El Niño event, there is an increased possibility of drier-than-usual conditions, which can lead to negative impacts such as droughts and dry spells in some parts of the country. However, above-normal rainfall conditions may also be experienced over the western section of the country during the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) season.
PAGASA forecast near average temperatures for Catanduanes this May to June and slightly above average temperatures for July to October.
There could be anywhere from 9 to 17 tropical cyclones either forming within or entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in the next six months: 1 or 2 this May; 1 or 2 in June; 2 to 4 in July; 2 to 3 in September; and, 1 or 2 in October.