PAGASA foresees 5-7 tropical cyclones in next three months

Five to seven tropical disturbances are expected to enter or develop within the Philippine Area of Responsibility from October to December 2022, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported last week.

The forecast was made by PAGASA’s Joseph Basconcillo of the Climatology & Agrometeorology Dibision (CAD) Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS) last Sept. 28 during the 152nd Climate Forum held online.

Two more cyclones could form near the archipelago from January to March 2023, he added.

The weather agency also said that the current La Niña weather phenomenon is expected to persist until December 2022, January and February 2023, after which it would transition to a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern.

La Niña increases the likelihood of having above normal rainfall conditions that could lead to potential adverse impacts such as heavy rainfall, floods, flashfloods and landslides over highly vulnerable areas.

For Catanduanes, above normal rainfall is forecast in the next six months, with the following mean rainfall figures: October, 483 mm; November, 583 mm; December, 640 mm; January 2023, 461 mm; February,  228 mm; and March, 219 mm.

In each of the next five months, there will be 11 to 15 dry days, which are days with less than 1 mm of rainfall observed.

The mean temperature in the island province is expected to range between near average to slightly above average, especially in November and December, PAGASA stated.

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