Meanwhile, public confidence in Congress, the Department of Public Works and Highways, and the country’s top elected leaders shows signs of weakness.
OCTA Research’s second-quarter 2026
Tugon ng Masa survey found that 65 percent of adult Filipinos trusted the PNP, up from 63 percent in the first quarter, while 63 percent were satisfied with its performance. The AFP, meanwhile, posted a 72 percent trust rating in OCTA’s first-quarter 2026 survey, with only 11 percent expressing distrust.
OCTA Research is an independent Philippine polling organization that conducts regular nationwide surveys, including its Tugon ng Masa series, on politics, governance, public safety, the economy, and social issues.
The findings about the uniformed services stand in stark contrast with findings for other branches of government. By comparison, in PUBLiCUS Asia’s second-quarter 2026 Pahayag survey, the Senate recorded just 12 percent trust, the House of Representatives 15 percent, and the DPWH 14 percent.
The Senate was the least trusted institution in that poll, followed by the DPWH, the Department of Budget and Management at 15 percent, and the House.
How the surveys work
The figures come from two regular but methodologically different polling programs.
OCTA Research conducts Tugon ng Masa, a nationwide survey using face-to-face interviews with about 1,200 Filipinos aged 18 and above. Its Q1, or “First Quarter”, 2026 poll was conducted from March 19 to 25 and had a 3 percentage margin of error nationally. OCTA asks respondents whether they trust institutions and officials, and separately whether they are satisfied with performance.
For trust in the national government, OCTA uses the statement: “I trust the national government to effectively address the country’s problems.” In its Q4 2025 survey, conducted December 3–11 among 1,200 adults, 55 percent agreed, 20 percent disagreed, and 25 percent were undecided.
PUBLiCUS Asia’s Pahayag is a quarterly, independent, non-commissioned survey of roughly 1,500 registered Filipino voters drawn from a market-research panel. Its Q2 2026 poll took place June 28 to 30.
It asks respondents to rate the trustworthiness of officials and institutions on a five-point scale, from “no trust” to “very high trust,” and tracks approval alongside trust.
Because the two polling firms use different samples, question wording, and scales, their results should not be compared number-for-number. But both point in the same broad direction: uniformed and service-delivery institutions enjoy stronger confidence than political institutions.
Leaders under pressure
Trust in the presidency and vice presidency has softened. OCTA’s Q2 2026 survey, conducted July 4–11, measured President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s trust rating at 49 percent, down five points from 54 percent in Q1.
Vice President Sara Duterte’s trust fell eight points, from 55 percent to 47 percent.
The decline was not uniform across the country. Marcos’s trust was highest in Balance Luzon, at 63 percent, but fell to 26 percent in Mindanao. Duterte showed the reverse pattern: 89 percent trust in Mindanao, but only 27 percent in Balance Luzon.
Those regional gaps underline a broader feature of Philippine public opinion: national trust ratings often conceal sharply different political geographies, with Luzon and Mindanao evaluating the country’s two highest officials through very different lenses.
Congress splits apart
The most notable institutional trend in 2026 is the divergence between the Senate and the House. OCTA found Senate trust falling from 44 percent in Q1 to 41 percent in Q2, while distrust rose from 24 percent to 27 percent. The House moved the other way: trust rose from 36 percent to 38 percent, while distrust fell from 33 percent to 28 percent.
The shift comes amid sustained public attention to anomalous flood-control projects and the 2026 national budget. PUBLiCUS reported that the Senate, House, and DPWH remained the least approved and least trusted institutions in its late-2025 survey, linking the weakness to those controversies.
Yet Filipinos appear to distinguish between Congress as an institution and their own representatives. OCTA’s Q2 2026 survey found 64 percent of respondents said their district representative was doing a good job—far above the 38 percent who trusted the House as an institution.
Why security forces lead
Analysts and the institutions themselves attribute the AFP and PNP’s stronger standing to the visibility and immediacy of their work. The PNP said its 63 percent first-quarter trust rating reflected efforts to maintain peace and order, including crime-reduction programs and community-safety initiatives.
The AFP benefits from a similarly clear mandate: national defense, territorial protection, disaster response, and support for development. In OCTA’s July 2025 survey, the AFP recorded 81 percent trust, 82 percent satisfaction, and only 2 percent distrust.
By contrast, Congress, the DPWH, and budget agencies are being judged against concerns over corruption, infrastructure spending, and accountability—issues that have dominated recent public debate.
Trust is performance-based
The overarching trend is that Filipinos’ trust appears increasingly conditional. The 2024 Philippine Trust Study, conducted by the EON Group with Ateneo de Manila University, found that Filipinos are more inclined to trust leaders and institutions that deliver transparency, accountability, and concrete, measurable outcomes.
That helps explain the current hierarchy: security forces and service agencies are rewarded for visible results, while institutions associated with budget disputes and infrastructure scandals face punishing scrutiny. It also explains why trust can move quickly. Pulse Asia found that between September and December 2025, trust in the House rose six points and trust in the DPWH rose six points, while DPWH distrust fell by 22 points.
For now, the AFP and PNP remain the public’s most trusted institutions. But the wider message from the polls is less reassuring for the rest of the government: Filipinos are not simply asking whether officials hold office—they are asking whether they can show results.
Bryce McIntyre, PhD, resides in San Andres. He holds a doctoral degree from Stanford University, Palo Alto, California, USA.
Perplexity AI aided in the research for this article.