It’s probably wishful thinking to hope that, by the time this article finds its way into print, the United States-Israeli conflict with Iran will have found a peaceful resolution.
But this is unlikely. Meanwhile the effects of the war — bombastically dubbed “Operation Epic Fury” by the U.S. and “Operation Roaring Lion” by Israel — can be found far afield, including here at home.
The escalating conflict in the Middle East — which began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran — sent shockwaves far beyond the region, with the Philippines feeling the heat through rising fuel prices, broader inflation, and uncertainty for hundreds of thousands of overseas Filipino workers.
As a net oil importer that gets 100 percent of its crude oil from the Middle East, the Philippines is vulnerable. Global oil benchmarks like Brent Crude have jumped sharply amid fears of disruptions of key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.
This has triggered fuel price hikes here in Catanduanes.
On March 3, 2026, major oil firms in the Philippines increased fuel prices by ₱1.90 per liter for gasoline, ₱1.20 for diesel, and ₱1.50 for kerosene.
These increases mark the eighth straight week of rises for gasoline and the 10th for diesel, pushing year-to-date net increases to around ₱6.70 for gasoline and ₱9.40 for diesel.
Averages around Manila now hover near ₱59-62 per liter for these fuels, with experts warning of even larger jumps — potentially ₱2 or more per liter in coming weeks — if tensions persist.
Fuel typically costs ₱15-20 more per liter here in Catanduanes than in Luzon.
The ripple effects are widespread. Higher fuel costs drive up transportation fares for buses, jeepneys, trucks, ferries and delivery vehicles, thus inflating prices for food, goods, and services.
Electricity rates also could climb here because the province is heavily reliant on diesel generators for power.
The Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Federation of Philippine Industries describe this as an “inflationary shock,” threatening households, micro- to small- and medium-sized enterprises, as well as overall economic stability.
The peso faces added pressure from currency volatility — the U.S. dollar climbed 1 percent against the peso in three days after the war started — and inflation could edge beyond the Philippines Central Banks’ target range if the conflict drags on.
Beyond energy, other commodities face upward pressure. Natural gas prices are rising due to production halts and shipping risks in the Gulf.
And fertilizers like urea, of which Iran is a major exporter, could become costlier, contributing to agricultural and food price hikes.
There is a human toll as well. Most Catandunganons probably know someone working in Israel, so friends and acquaintances may be at risk.
Indeed, a Filipina from the Ilocos region was killed a few days ago by falling debris during a missile attack in Tel Aviv.
She was identified as Mary Anne Velasquez de Vera, a 32‑year‑old caregiver from Basista, Pangasinan, who had been working as a caregiver in Israel since 2019. She was killed in an Iranian missile strike on the evening of Feb. 28 while moving an elderly person to safety but could not reach a bomb shelter in time.
Velasquez de Vera was just one of the estimated 2 million to 2.4 million Filipinos in the Middle East, including over 1.1 million in the Persian Gulf states of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait.
Smaller numbers are in higher-risk spots: around 31,000 in Israel, 14,000 in Lebanon, 800 in Iran, and fewer in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen.
Remittances from these workers — vital to millions of Filipino families and the economy — are at risk if disruptions worsen, potentially declining and hitting domestic consumption hard.
In recent years, total personal remittances from OFWs have been stable at 8–9 percent of GDP.
As for repatriations, Secretary of Migrant Workers Hans Leo Cacdac, the Department of Foreign Affairs and the Overseas Workers Welfare Administration have activated emergency protocols.
No mandatory mass repatriation is in place yet — only voluntary repatriations in most areas, with Alert Level 4, mandatory evacuation, limited to Gaza, Syria, and Yemen.
Last week, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. advised OFWs to shelter in place.
“The situation is very fluid. Our assessment is that it’s too dangerous to fly, even if we could. There’s nothing we can do because airports are closed. This [airspace] is a combat area,’ the president was quoted as saying.
However, preparations are underway for potential large-scale returns, including contingency plans for air, sea, and land transport, shelters, and support.
Hundreds have sought help: around 80–100 in Dubai, where the airspace is closed, as well as 52–54 in Israel, and smaller numbers elsewhere.
Dozens of OFWs on their way to the Middle East had to be rerouted from Hong Kong and repatriated.
Bryce McIntyre, PhD, resides in San Andres. He holds a doctoral degree from Stanford University, Palo Alto, California, USA. Grok AI was employed in research for this article.