Inside Page | Fernan A. Gianan:

Two more storms expected in December

For the first time in decades, this writer was not in Catanduanes when the latest super typhoon came to our shores as the Saturday flight to Virac was cancelled by the airline due to the PAGASA forecast of heavy rain and wind gusts from the approaching super typhoon Pepito.

I was a Grade One pupil on Oct. 13, 1970 when the family left our wooden, nipa-roofed house in Rawis for the safety of the concrete residence of our grandparents in Gogon Centro. When we came home after the storm, only the wooden posts and the floor were left of our home along with the Grundig stereo system that was full of beach sand.

On Nov. 2-3, 1995. I chose to ride out super typhoon Rosing in the semi-concrete house in Palnab del Sur along with our farm caretaker and his son. By 8PM the entire roof was about to lift off and we were forced to shelter in the small comfort room until the early hours the next day. Half of the roof was gone and a coconut tree had fallen over our shelter, stopped only by the wall.

With our seven-month-old son, we left our rented house in Calatagan Proper on Oct. 22 and transferred to our neighbor’s two-storey concrete residence to save ourselves from the wrath of super typhoon Loleng (155-250kph). When the storm suddenly calmed, I went out to check my in-laws in their house just a hundred meters away.

The sight of Loleng’s eye that night I would not forget for the rest of my life: stars were shining above and at the circular wall of clouds forming the eye flashed angry lightning. On the way, electric posts were leaning towards the south.

After a few minutes, the storm came back and I could no longer return to our shelter. It was already hours later at 5:30 AM that I was able to reunite with my family and had to pick my way along the street of fallen electric posts, now leaning the other way.

In the succeeding super typhoons Reming (195-320kph, Nov. 29-30, 2006), Nina (195-260kph, Dec. 25, 2016), Rolly (220-315kph, Nov. 1, 2020) and Pepito (195-325kph, Nov. 16, 2024), the two-storey concrete house, with half of its roof covered by Gi sheets, built on government loans proved a safe enough shelter.

But it did sustain damage for three straight super typhoons, caused by flying debris punching holes on the GI roof and allowing a flood of rain inside.

*****

In the latest Climate Outlook issued by PAGASA during the last week of October 2024, it stated that the Philippines could expect one or two tropical cyclones this November.

So far, the country has been hit by four storms that formed in the Pacific Ocean this month: Marce, Nika, Ofel and Pepito. And we still have 10 days more to go before the month ends.

This December, PAGASA expects one or two more storms to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and at most one each in the first four months of 2025.

Unfortunately, based on actual tracks of cyclones monitored by the weather agency since 1948, a significant number of them make landfall anywhere along Central Philippines, including the Bicol region.

One other typhoon this November and two more in December would probably bankrupt the calamity funds of affected local government units. They would need an infusion of funds from the national government.

*****

AN ACCURATE ANSWER. While looking at a dinosaur fossil at museum, a man asks the scientist, “How old are these?”

The scientist replies, “60 million, 2 years, and 33 days.”

Impressed, the man asks how he can be so precise.

“Well, they were 60 million years old when I started working here, and I have been here for 2 years and 33 days.”

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