In October, torrential rains from Tropical Storm Trami led to widespread flooding across Catanduanes and neighboring provinces, resulting in at least nine deaths and numerous evacuations as floodwaters reached up to 3 meters in some areas.
Catanduanes is experiencing the effects of climate change and these effects are predicted to increase in the province.
Climate change is personal. Seventy-five percent (75%) of Filipinos reported experiencing the effects of climate change, according to an Asian Development Bank survey in 2022. The number surely will rise.
The most obvious change at a personal level is seen in rising temperatures. These increases in temperature are contributing to more frequent extreme heat events and altering seasonal weather patterns across the Philippine archipelago.
Over the past 65 years, temperatures here have risen by approximately 0.68 degrees Celsius. That is a rise of 0.1 degrees Celsius per decade.
Climate scientists say that by mid-century, temperatures could increase by 0.9 degrees Celsius to 2.3 degrees Celsius, depending on the amount of greenhouse gas emissions.
But these emissions are increasing at an alarming rate, and today they show no sign of declining.
As temperatures rise, crop yields are declining, sea levels are on the rise, and typhoons are expected to increase in intensity. The Philippine government says that these adverse impacts will increase exponentially.
Regarding crop yields, higher temperatures exacerbate heat stress and water loss, leading to reduced seed germination and crop vigor.
Studies indicate that in Southeast Asia generally, rice yields decline by approximately 10 percent for each 1-degree Celsius rise in minimum temperature.
So, it is no coincidence that the Philippine Statistics Authority reports significant declines in rice yields from key regions.
In Catanduanes from 2000 to 2010, rice yields improved, reaching about 3,075 kilograms per hectare. However, there has been a decline since then, with yields dropping to 2,780 kilograms per hectare in 2021. The yield in 2021 was an 8.24 percent decrease in rice yields compared to the previous year. (More recent data for Catanduanes were not available at the time of this writing.)
Rice farmers who nevertheless have seen increases in yield through the use of fertilizers, insecticides and improved irrigation ate merely postponing the inevitable.
As for sea level rice, coastal flooding events are projected to occur 18 times more frequently by 2100, resulting in the displacement of millions of Filipinos.
Northeastern provinces are among the most affected regions. Nationwide, an estimated 1.8 million people could be affected by a one-meter rise.
Nevertheless, the annual rate of sea level rise in Catanduanes is relatively low – 1.2 millimeters per year – according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration.
This is much lower than the rate around Metro Manila which is 3.75 millimeters per year. However, Metro Manila is also experiencing land subsidence and river flooding, problems not experienced here in Catanduanes.
Regarding the intensity of typhoons, warming seas are linked to heightened typhoon intensity.
The average sea surface temperature increased by approximately 0.6 degrees Celsius to 0.9 degrees Celsius over the past two decades, largely attributed to climate change and the influence of El Niño events.
In 2000, sea surface temperatures in the East Philippine Sea typically ranged from 26 to 30 degrees C. Last month, the sea surface temperature east of Catanduanes was 29.5 degrees C.
Bryce McIntyre, PhD, resides in San Andres. He holds a doctoral degree from Stanford University in Palo Alto, California, USA.