Nobody really knows where a tropical cyclone will go next, just as “Enteng” demonstrated last Sunday, Sept. 1, 2024.
Starting as a cluster of clouds east of Mindanao, it developed into a low-pressure area that took its time meandering up the sea east of the country.
It was a calm, early Saturday evening in Virac on the last day of August, with joggers and casual walkers along the boulevard not minding that there was no breeze at all, typical during the “habagat” season.
That all changed in just 18 hours, with the nation’s weather agency, PAGASA, issuing its first bulletin on “Enteng” before noon Sunday. At 10AM, it located the tropical depression at 220 kilometers southeast of Virac with winds of 45-55kph and moving northwest at 30kph.
Signal number 1 was issued, stranding Catanduanes-bound passengers hoping to board the 1PM ferries to San Andres and Virac.
Among them were groups of barangay officials who had just attended a three-day seminar-workshop on budget planning and preparation conducted by DBM and ALBOREV at a hotel in Legazpi City.
The bulletin indicated that it had a warning lead time of 36 hours, meaning winds speed of 39 to 61kph were expected in the affected areas after 36 hours although it predicted minimal to minor threat to life and property.
TD “Enteng” showed PAGASA that the 36-hour lead time it gave was no guarantee for public safety.
Three hours after that initial bulletin, the depression was at 160km southeast of Virac, where it probably lingered for the next three hours before continuing on its northwest track at a much slower pace of 15kph.
By this time, 4PM of Sept. 1, its sustained winds had intensified to 55-70kph, and by 8PM, was at 30km east southeast of Virac and poised to hit land somewhere between Bato and Baras.
But then, based on PAGASA bulletins, it most likely moved north-northwest in the next three hours and was about 15km east northeast of Bagamanoc población by 11PM, having intensified again to tropical storm strength with winds of 65-80kph near the center.
It made landfall somewhere in the Lourdes-Tokio area of Pandan and sliced through the upper portion of the town.
Other weather agencies placed the storm’s landfall between Bato and Baras while another said it first hit Pt. Anajao in Panganiban, then Panay island before making its third landfall in Bagamanoc.
Barangay officials who were out of their jurisdictions last Sunday should thank God that no rapid intensification occurred in “Enteng’s” case, unlike what happened during super typhoon Rolly.
Clearly, something should be done about frequent seminar workshops being held by DBM and other agencies in the mainland when these could be done right here in the island to save precious time and money.
On the other hand, PAGASA should rethink its 36-hour warning lead time, especially when a depression is moving at 30kph.
At the time Signal No. 1 was issued, Enteng’s distance from the island was just 220km, which the storm could have covered in less than eight hours assuming it maintained its speed.
Upon the advice of PAGASA regarding an impending development of a tropical cyclone, local Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Offices should issue appropriate warnings to the populace, especially fisherfolk.