PAGASA: 7 to 14 cyclones expected in next six months

Seven to 14 tropical cyclones are expected to develop within to enter the country’s territory this September to December 2022, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported recently.

In its Climate Outlook for the next six months that was rendered during the 151st Climate Forum on Aug. 24, 2022, the weather agency stated that there will be two to three cyclones this September, two to four in October, two to three in November, and one or two in December.

For each of the first two months of 2023, there will be none or one cyclone, PAGASA added.

Majority of such cyclones entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility make landfall in the central part of the country, including the Bicol region, during the “ber” months, based on actual typhoon tracks from 1948 to 2015.

In late October to early November 2020, three successive typhoons, including super howler ”Rolly” wrought havoc in Catanduanes and destroyed thousands of structures.

The report pointed out that the La Niña phenomenon re-strengthened and is forecast to continue until February 2023, increasing the likelihood of having above-normal rainfall conditions that could lead to potential adverse impacts such as heavy rainfall, floods and landslides in highly vulnerable areas.

During La Niña, PAGASA disclosed, generally more tropical cyclones develop closer to the Philippines, thereby increasing their likelihood of hitting land.

La Niña is an oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon that is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation climate pattern. The name La Niña originates from Spanish for “the girl,” by analogy to El Niño, meaning “the boy.”

While the forecast rainfall for September 2022 will be 86% of normal for the island province, it will be above normal for the next five months: 134.3% for October, 149.8% for November, 121.1% for December, 148.3% for January 2023, and 134.4% for February 2023.

Mean figures for the forecast rainfall for Catanduanes are as follows: September, 230.5 mm; October, 500.2 mm; November, 605.6 mm; December, 634.9 mm; January 2023, 415.8 mm; and February 2023, 236.3 mm.

PAGASA said it will continue to monitor the strengthening La Niña and issue advisories as appropriate, with the next Climate Forum set on Sept. 28.

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