Local governments in Catanduanes learned recently that they must cut their 2026 budgets because the national government reduced the amount of money in annual block grants to local government units.
Allotments like these are based on population size, so the cuts were made due to a drop in the population of Catanduanes Province — and they are a noteworthy effect of outward migration from the island.
After decades of growth, Catanduanes’ population declined from 271,879 in 2020 to 261,169 in 2024, a net loss of 10,710 residents, according to figures from the 2024 Census of Population.
This represents a drop of almost 1 percent.
The decline is attributed mainly to out-migration, but it has been compounded by a drop in births as well.
Catanduanes Province has a general fertility rate of 51 births per 1,000 women aged 15-49, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority. But this is lower than the 65-75 births required to maintain the current population size.
Catanduanes’ low fertility rate is not confined to the province but is a reflection of national trends. These are due to family planning programs and increased access to contraceptives.
As for the budget cuts, which specifically are reductions in National Tax Allotments announced by the Department of Budget and Management, they are but one of the many wakeup calls for the consequences of demographic changes in a poor island province like Catanduanes.
(For details on how these cuts affect local government units, see Catanduanes Tribune, Oct. 30, 2025, available online.)
The scope of this migration is evident from a visit to a ferry terminal at the commencement of a major holiday, where throngs of migrants can be seen returning home for family reunions and festivities.
From a broader perspective, the Bicol Region ranks second in the nation for lifetime out-migrants, according to the Bicol Region Development Plan.
Primary reasons are employment opportunities, housing, education, and family ties. Top destinations include urban areas like Calabarzon and the National Capital Region, clearly indicating a rural-to-urban shift.
Contributing factors are high poverty, which was 29.3 percent in the Bicol Region in 2021; unemployment, about 8.8 percent regionally; low agricultural productivity; and more powerful typhoons, which exacerbate economic pressures.
Indeed, migration has been recognized globally as a consequence of climate change since the mid-1990s.
Virac and nearby lowlands, plus the coastal towns of Pandan, Viga, Bagamanoc, Baras, Gigmoto, and Caramoran, repeatedly experience serious impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, and river flooding.
Aside from cuts in National Tax Allotments, out-migration from Catanduanes has several other effects.
On the positive side are remittances — that is, money sent back home.
Out-migration generates substantial remittances that boost household incomes, reducing the incidence of poverty and enabling personal investments in education, health and housing.
The total remittances to Catanduanes are unknown bevcause there are no provincial level reporting requirements. However, extrapolating from data at the national level, Catanduanes, which has a ₱30 billion economy, probably receives in the low to mid hundreds of millions of pesos in remittances annally.
For Catanduanes, where abaca farming is a key industry, remittances presumably support farm investments, though data on this is limited.
What’s more, children who benefit from remittances show higher school attendance, better grades, and improved health outcomes, according to reports.
Also, exposure to urban or international experiences fosters social mobility, with returning migrants bringing new ideas, skills, and social networks that enhance community development.
As for negative impacts — aside from the reductions in block grants from the national government — the exodus, especially of youth and skilled workers, leads to labor shortages, reduced agricultural output, and economic stagnation, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority.
Most migrants are in their late teens to early 40s, leaving the elderly behind to look after farms and plantations.
More specifically, rural-urban migration has a negative relationship to total agricultural production in the province, as it depletes the workforce in farming communities — evidenced by data from 1988-2018 showing that higher migration correlates with lower farming output.
Brain drain further compounds issues, with skilled professionals, especially nurses and teachers, leaving the province, thus leading to understaffing in hospitals and schools.
Overall, migration also widens income inequality, as benefits accrue more to higher-income households, driving up prices and exacerbating rural-urban disparities.
Persistent outflows of workers also contribute to a “culture of migration”. Out-migration has come to be viewed as a measure of personal success.
Migration also separates families, leading to emotional and psychological costs, particularly when mothers leave children behind.
In poor rural households, this can lead to “care deficits”, with children experiencing loneliness, anxiety, lower academic performance, and higher risks of behavioral issues like delinquency and drug abuse. In such cases, extended families or relatives step in as caregivers, but this strains social networks.
In Catanduanes, as in other island cultures, family separations contribute to weakened community cohesion and a loss of cultural continuity.
More broadly, out-migration selectively removes young, educated individuals, leading to an aging population and fertility declines due to spousal separation and delayed marriages.
This being said, outward migration should be encouraged for educational purposes or when the local labor supply far exceeds demand. The greatest benefits occur when migrants return periodically or permanently with savings, skills, and social networks that will benefit the province.
In summary, while out-migration provides economic lifelines through remittances, it often leads to social fragmentation and economic vulnerabilities in rural island provinces like Catanduanes.
Addressing these consequences requires targeted interventions, such as job creation, disaster resilience programs, and incentives for youth retention or return.
Bryce McIntyre, PhD, resides in San Andres. He holds a doctoral degree from Stanford University, Palo Alto, California, USA.