PAGASA: 2 to 8 tropical cyclones expected in first 6 months of 2026

Around two to eight tropical cyclones will develop or enter the Philippine area of responsibility this January to June 2026, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) reported recently.

One of them might form or enter the country this month, with a potential track toward Eastern Visayas or the Caraga region, although it could also veer away from the country, it added.

If the storm indeed forms and enters the PAR, it will be called “Ada” based on the new roster of tropical cyclone names the weather agency said is in Set II of its domestic cyclone names, in the alphabetical order from A to Z, excluding the letter X.

The list also includes Basyang, Caloy, Domeng, Ester, Francisco, Gardo, Henry, Inday, Josie, Kiyapo, Luis, Maymay, Neneng, Obet, Pilandok, Queenie, Rosal, Samuel, Tomas, Umbertoa, Venus, Waldo, Yayang and Zeny.

PAGASA clarified that the names Ada, Francisco, Kiyapo and Pilandok will replace Agaton, Florita, Karding and Paeng, which were retired after inflicting widespread damage in 2022.

Under agency guidelines, a tropical cyclone name is retired if it causes at least 300 deaths or inflicts P1 billion or more in damage to homes, agriculture and infrastructure, according to data from the Office of Civil Defense.

Names may also be retired when several storms hit in quick succession, intensifying their combined impact.

Meanwhile, in the recent Climate Forum held Dec. 18, 2025, weather experts reported that short-lived, weak La Nina is present in the tropical Pacific and will likely persist until the first quarter of 2026.

Near-normal rainfall is expected over most parts of the country, with Catanduanes to have above normal rainfall this January and near-normal rainfall in the next five months.

PAGASA forecasts a maximum of 426 millimeters of precipitation for the island province this January, with the following maximum rainfall for the rest of the semester: February – 230.5 mm; March – 227.9 mm; April – 119.1 mm; May – 188.3 mm; and June – 220.7 mm.

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