As 2025 draws to a close, Catanduanes Province stands at a crossroads. Super Typhoon Uwan, which slammed the island in November, inflicted a staggering PHP5.74 billion in damages — devastating agriculture, fisheries, and infrastructure, and affecting over 260,000 residents.
Yet, after the destruction, Catanduanes’ economy is poised for a rebound in 2026, fueled by a reconstruction boom, surging tourism, and a continued shift away from “climate-vulnerable” economic sectors.
One caveat is fallout from the recent collapse of SUWECO, the island’s main supplier of electric power. Although SUWECO’s assets have been unfrozen so it can continue to buy diesel fuel for its generators, how this situation will be resolved in the long term, and its effects on the island’s economy, are unclear.
Not to mention that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, due partly to massive political corruption in Manila, just slashed its growth forecasts for the Philippines in 2025 from 5.6 percent to 4.7 percent. The nation is now expected to extend a run of below-target results to 2027.
The new projection from the OECD is 5.1 percent real GDP growth for 2026, down from the previous forecast of 6 percent in their June 2025 outlook. It should be noted, however, that 5.1 percent is still a relatively high number: Globally, the average growth rate for all nations is expected to be 2.9 percent in 2026.
An additional concern is a drop in the island’s population by 10,710 people to 261,169 residents, compelling the national government to cut 2026 allocations to local government units.
In any event, for years Catanduanes has outperformed its Bicol neighbors with the region’s highest per capita GDP, around PHP120,000, and leading growth rates: 7.6 percent in 2023 and 5.4 percent in 2024.
This success stems mainly from a pivot from traditional agriculture and fisheries — once the backbone of rural life — to services and industry. By mid-2025, tourism was the undisputed star, with overnight arrivals hitting 138,905 by September — up 16.6 percent year-on-year — and same-day visitors exceeding 439,000. Second-quarter figures alone showed a 28.8 percent spike to 60,000 visitors, generating tens of millions in receipts. Digital marketing, eco-adventure promotions like surfing competitions, and a post-pandemic wanderlust propelled this surge.
Looking to 2026, tourism is set for exceptional growth, potentially exceeding 200,000 in overnight arrivals if recovery efforts capitalize on the island’s unspoiled environment. Provincial targets remain ambitious, backed by the Tourism Promotions Board and initiatives like farm-to-table culinary experiences and sustainable surfing tours. Despite Uwan’s disruption — damaging roads, hotels, and beaches — the sector’s resilience shines through.
Damage from super typhoons Rolly in October 2020 and Pepito in November 2024 saw quick recovery, and 2026 could mirror this, with visitor numbers swelling 20-30 percent as “phoenix tourism” narratives draw sympathy travelers and adventure seekers. Renewable energy prospects, tapping the island’s wind and wave potential, could further synergize with eco-tourism, attracting green investments.
Construction and infrastructure will be the other standout performer, likely posting double-digit growth. Uwan’s wrath necessitated massive rebuilding: farm-to-market roads, more resilient homes, airport upgrades, and seawalls. National government funds, already a growth driver, will flood in via rehabilitation packages. The Bicol Regional Development Plan for 2023-2028 emphasizes disaster-resilient infrastructure, aligning perfectly with 2026 needs.
Retail, trade, and public administration — core services contributing over 60 percent of GDP — will ride this wave, creating jobs here, where underemployment has long plagued rural youth.
In stark contrast, agriculture and fisheries face declines, threatening to deepen into a multi-year slump. Abaca, which earns Catanduanes its title as national leader in hemp production with 35 percent of Philippines’ output, suffered catastrophic losses: an estimated PHP700 million to PHP1.2 billion from Uwan alone, with many small farms flattened.
Recovery timelines stretch 1-2 years for replanting disease-resistant varieties, compounded by prior hits from typhoons Tino and others in 2025. Rice production, already halved since 2018, and fisheries — down 47 percent in volume over the same period — will see further contraction — exacerbated by destroyed boats, gear, and coastal habitats. The Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing sector, now just 8 percent of GDP, could shrink another 5-10 percent in 2026, pushing more farmers toward urban jobs or out-migration.
The Provincial Development Council’s 2025-2026 plans, including free studies from planners for sustainable strategies, signal proactive governance. Opportunities abound in value-added abaca products such as eco-fabrics, aquaculture diversification, and carbon credits from the island’s 75 percent forest cover. Carbon credits generate significant income, but local government must initiate the application process.
Yet risks loom: The Department of Agriculture plans cash-for-work programs employing over 23,000 farmers for rehabilitation, but delays could stall momentum, and, even though this is unlikely, another bad typhoon season might derail progress. Not to mention that food security remains a concern as imports rise to fill gaps in local rice, fish, and vegetable supplies, driving up the cost of food.
A final caveat: Economic forecasting is an inexact science. As the famous American baseball player Yogi Berra famously said, “Forecasting is very difficult, especially about the future.”
