As 2025 draws to a close on a devastating note — Super Typhoon Uwan and its predecessors leaving abaca plantations shredded and rice fields submerged — farmers in Catanduanes can begin 2026 with cautious optimism.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, or PAGASA, forecasts a short-lived, weak La Niña that will fade by early 2026, delivering a markedly drier and cooler first half of the year than the province’s usually wet climate typically allows. For an island still reeling from billions of pesos in agricultural losses, this could be the breathing room needed to rebuild.
PAGASA’s latest seasonal outlook, issued in late November 2025, confirms La Niña conditions are present and expected to persist through the December–January–February 2026 season before transitioning to ENSO-neutral by March.
ENSO-neutral is the phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific show differences between -0.5°C and +0.5°C from average, indicating neither El Niño (warm) nor La Niña (cool) conditions dominate.
Unlike stronger episodes that drench the eastern seaboard of the Philippines, this weak event is producing an unusual pattern for Catanduanes: below-normal rainfall from January through April, followed by near-normal conditions in May.
January and February — the heart of the northeast monsoon, known locally as Amihan — will see significantly fewer rainy days than usual, with strings of dry days signaling extended dry spells. March and April will continue the below-normal trend nationwide, and Catanduanes is squarely in the zone. Only in May does rainfall return closer to average as Habagat, the southwest monsoon, begins to stir.
Habagat, the southwest monsoon, brings warm, humid winds from the southwest, typically from late May or June to October or November, often causing heavy rainfall, typhoons, flash floods, and landslides.
Temperatures tell a similar story. After a near-average to slightly warmer December, cooler-than-normal air is expected to dominate Bicol Region from January through April, courtesy of enhanced cold surges riding the strengthened nor0theast monsoon. Brief but sharp drops in temperature are likely when Amihan peaks. By May, the pendulum swings back, with warmer-than-average conditions taking hold as La Niña fully dissipates.
For rice farmers, the outlook is largely favorable. The dry-season crop, typically transplanted in December–January and harvested April–May, should benefit from reduced waterlogging and fewer lodging incidents. Rainfed palay in lower elevations may need supplemental irrigation during prolonged dry spells, but overall, the cooler temperatures and lower humidity will ease pest and disease pressure—blast and tungro have thrived in recent wet years.
Abaca farmers — Catanduanes produces nearly half the nation’s supply — stand to gain the most. Excessive moisture is the crop’s worst enemy, promoting bunchy top virus and leaf diseases that have plagued abaca farmers in recent wet cycles. The forecasted drier period from January to April should curb fungal outbreaks and allow safer stripping and drying of fiber, potentially improving grade quality and market price. Cooler temperatures will further slow disease vectors.
Abaca farms devastated by Uwan’s 300 km/h winds will have calmer conditions for replanting suckers and establishing windbreaks, though farmers must remain vigilant: Even a weak La Niña slightly elevates tropical cyclone formation in the Western Pacific.
PAGASA projects 2–8 tropical cyclones entering or forming in the Philippine Area of Responsibility between December 2025 and May 2026 — fewer than a strong La Niña year but still a serious threat for the Pacific-facing province. Catanduanes’ tragic history as a typhoon magnet means every storm track will be watched with dread. A single direct hit could undo months of recovery, snapping newly planted abaca pseudostems or flooding newly planted rice paddies.
Yet compared to the relentless battering of 2024–2025, 2026 looks like a rehabilitation year. The Department of Agriculture field office in Bicol urges farmers to seize the window: accelerate replanting of abaca using disease-free planting materials, install irrigation where possible for rice, reinforce windbreaks
with bamboo or ipil-ipil, and secure crop insurance before the next storm season ramps up in June.
