Some of the Philippines’ neighbors in the Indo-Pacific Region – Tuvalu, the Marshall Islands and the Maldives – have captured the attention of the world’s press by asserting that they will disappear entirely by the end of the century because of rising sea levels.
This situation is tragic, but a worse fate awaits the Philippines.
As an island nation, the Philippines is also vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise due to climate change, and this is especially true for Catanduanes because of its location on the east side of the Philippine archipelago.
The Philippines has 36,289 kilometers of coastline. It is one of the longest coastlines in the world, ranking sixth globally after Canada, Norway, Indonesia, Greenland and Russia. By way of comparison, the circumference of the Earth is 40,000 kilometers.
The population of the Philippines is 114 million, while the total population of the Maldives, the Marshall Island and Tuvalu is 593,000.
Millions of Filipinos will need relocation as sea levels rise – as many as 20 times more people than those who will need to be relocated in Tuvalu, the Marshall Islands and the Maldives, according to some experts.
In addition, more than 1,000 islands in Philippines are expected to become uninhabitable due to regular flooding.
According to a report called Global Climate Risk Index published by the World Economic Forum, in terms of fatalities and economic losses, the Philippines ranked fourth among the countries most affected by extreme weather events in 2000-2018.
The Western North Pacific basin accounts for about one-third of tropical cyclones per year, according to the report.
The report also said that the Philippines experienced 317 major weather-related events during that period, the highest among the most affected countries.
Most of these events are accompanied by floods and storm surges, which worsen as storms intensify and sea levels rise.
It is widely reported that the rate of sea level rise in the Philippine is twice that of the global average. By the end of this century, according to government reports, thousands of barangays will be uninhabitable and thousands of square kilometers will be lost under the sea.
Children born today in low-lying barangays will not inherit their families’ properties because the land will be subject to periodic flooding – or even be under water.
Worldwide, the rate of sea level rise was approximately 4.5 millimeters per year in 2023, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The rate was 2.1 millimeters per year in 1993, so the actual rate of increase is itself increasing.
The current rate of increase in sea level rise, according to the IPCC, is 0.08 millimeters per year, and it will reach 5.0 millimeters per year by 2030.
Local scientists say that the rate of sea level rise in the Philippines is much higher than the global average.
Dr. Lourdes Tibig, climate science advisor to the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities, reported that the amount of sea level rise around some islands in Visayas is four times that of the global average – more than 1 centimeter per year.
The sea level around Manila is increasing at a rate of 2-3 centimeters per year, according to a 268-page National Adaptation Plan.
As was widely reported in the nation’s press last year, the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) said millions of Filipinos will need to be relocated by 2100.
“It is projected that almost 17 percent of the Philippines’ islands will be submerged due to sea level rising by 2100, putting at risk 64 provinces, 822 coastal communities and an estimated 13.6 million Filipinos that would need relocation,” an official at the DENR reportedly said last year.
As previously reported in this newspaper, at least 22 barangays in Virac are vulnerable to coastal flooding, not to mention San Andres. Mitigation efforts are underway in several locales on the island.
In general, Catandunganons can expect increased coastal erosion and damage to infrastructure, as well as impacts on marine ecosystems and risks to agriculture and freshwater aquifers under worst case scenarios.
These problems will not go away anytime soon. The IPCC says that the situation is unequivocal, unprecedented, irreversible, rapid and widespread.
Nationally, the Philippines could lose up to 6 percent annually of its gross domestic product (GDP) by 2100 due to climate related damage, with sea level rise being a major contributor.
Sea level rise lags behind the increases in the Earth’s temperature by several decades, so even if the amount of greenhouse gas emissions was cut immediately, the sea would continue to rise for many years.
Sea level rise is caused by two principal means – thermal expansion of the sea water as atmospheric temperatures increase and the melting of ice in Greenland and Antarctica and mountain glaciers worldwide.
As far as ice melt goes, on a summer day in Greenland, for example, the ice sheet typically loses 10 billion tons of ice. The rate of the melt is lower in winter, but Greenland still loses at least 250 billion tons annually.
Any amount of water expands when its temperature increases, and the ocean is a “heat sink”, meaning that it absorbs heat from the atmosphere and stores it for a very long time.
Even if the air temperature globally dropped today, the earth would continue to warm as the oceans released stored heat.
Discrepancies in the amount of sea level rise in different geographical locations are due to several factors – vertical land movement, wind and tide patterns, and undersea topography.
Bryce McIntyre, PhD, resides in San Andres. He holds a doctoral degree from Stanford University, Palo Alto, California, USA