The island of Catanduanes, along with two other provinces in Bicol, will have below-normal rainfall this coming May, the national weather agency said recently in its Climate Outlook for March-August 2022.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) report, rendered during the 145th National Climate Forum last Feb. 23, stated that these provinces will see a reduction ranging from 20% to 60% from the normal.
It said that while March 2022 is forecast to be above normal (135%), the island would have near normal (86.2%) rainfall for April, below normal (67.6%) for May and near normal for June to August (116.6%, 96.9% and 105.3%, respectively).
The report forecast the total rainfall for this March at 235.4 mm but this has been eclipsed as of March 13 when the easterlies dumped moderate to heavy rains on the island.
According to PAGASA Virac officer-in-charge Juan Pantino Jr., the Virac Synoptic Station recorded a total of 212 mm of rainfall from 5 AM to 11 AM that day alone.
By the first half of the month, the total rainfall had already reached 351.8mm, he said.
Flash flooding was reported in several areas in the capital town, including that stretch along the national highway from Cavinitan to the flood-prone portion in front of the Eastern Bicol Medical Center.
The “unfavorable” weather also forced the airline servicing the island to cancel its flight to Manila as the Virac-bound aircraft turned back due to zero visibility at the vicinity of the airport runway.
Records show that the last comparable heavy rainfall in the town was on Dec. 16, 2021 with 272mm, when typhoon Odette’s trough converged with the northeast monsoon.
For the next five months, the forecast rainfall in millimeters are as follows: April, 110.1mm; May, 113.0mm; June, 252.4mm; July, 241.4mm; and, August, 197.2mm.
There will be 16 dry days in March, 17 in April, 20 in May, 13 in June, 16 in July and 16 in August, with the mean temperatures more or less near average or the same compared to normal from March to July.
There will be slightly above normal temperatures in August, when the “habagat” season or southwest monsoon is at its peak.
In its La Niña Advisory No. 5, the weather agency said that the La Niña phenomenon persists and is likely to continue until May 2022 and returning to ENSO-neutral during May-June-July 2022 season.
La Nina increases the likelihood of having above normal rainfall conditions in some areas of the country, it added, with adverse impacts such as floods and landslides likely to occur over the vulnerable areas and sectors of the country.
The advisory noted that the last six years were La Niña years, with the 2020-2021 episode “weak to moderate” but brought a series of typhoons to Catanduanes, including super typhoon Rolly on Nov. 1, 2020.
As for tropical cyclones, the forecast is none or one typhoon each for March to May, one or two this June, one to three cyclones in July and two or three in August.
There has been no tropical cyclone for 2022 but if one comes into the PAR this month, it be named “Agaton.”
The other names in the set of names for 2022 are Basyang, Caloy, Domeng, Ester, Florita, Gardo, Henry, Inday, Josie, Karding, Luis, Maymay, Neneng, Obet, Paeng, Queenie, Rosal, Samuel, Tomas, Umberto, Venus, Waldo, Yayang and Zeny.
Held in reserve as auxiliary names, in case the total number of cyclones for the year exceeds 25, are Agila, Bagwis, Chito, Diego, Elena, Felino, Gunding, Harriet, Indang and Jessa.
Last March 16, PAGASA announced that the northeast monsoon or “amihan” season is over, signaling the start of warmer conditions.
It advised the public is advised to take precautionary measures to minimize heat stress and optimize the daily use of water for personal and domestic consumption.
The weather bureau is also releasing daily heat index records from March to May.
The heat index refers to what people “perceive or feel as the temperature affecting their body.” It is computed by taking the actual air temperature combined with the relative humidity in an area.