Recurring power outages in the summer are exasperating for Catandunganons, to put it mildly.

As one Virac-based media website complained, in somewhat labored English:

‘This Has To End – Frequent Brownout (sic) in the Province During Summer Season”.

That was the headline. It continued:

“Ever since the summer season began in the Philippines, there was (sic) never a day where there are (sic) no recorded power outages. Although this is nothing new to the people of Catanduanes, thy (sic) are quite noticeable given the circumstances.

“On regular days, 3, 6, or even 12 hours without power is somewhat of a normal day, but during these times, when the heat index ranges from 44 to 49, it has become an unforgivable sin. These are the times when people don’t care if their electric bills skyrocket to the heavens – no, in the name of comfort whether you’re at home or at work.”

That anguished complaint was published in the summer of 2023. However, the summer of 2024 was no better, and the outlook for the summer of 2025 is not good. This because of changes in rainfall patterns, which affect hydroelectric power generation – not to mention ever-increasing demands on the power grid in Catanduanes.

An alluring solution is the addition of more renewable resources to the power supply. Renewables include hydroelectric generators, geothermal sources, windmills, biomass and solar panels.

In a 2018 report titled “Greening of the Grid”, the Department of Energy announced the goal of generating 30 to 50 percent of the nation’s total power supply with renewables by 2030.

As of 2024, about 22-25 percent of the nation’s electricity supply was from renewables, so the country arguably is on target to meeting the goals set in 2018.

Indeed, the Philippines already is a world leader in both geothermal and hydropower electricity generation, and solar and wind power projects are underway in Luzon and Visayas.

However, adding renewables to the system, especially on a large scale, raises a conundrum known as Jevons Paradox.

Jevons Paradox reveals an uncomfortable truth about this strategy.

William Stanley Jevons was a 19th century English economist who was interested in the improved efficiency of steam engines and the amount of coal consumption in Victorian England.

The paradox is that improvements in the efficiency in the way natural resources are used leads to greater consumption – which in turn leads to greater demand on natural resources.

This pattern repeats itself across history, and modern examples abound.

For example, when LED bulbs made lighting more efficient, people and businesses installed more lights.

Also, energy-efficient air conditioners have led to larger climate-controlled spaces.

And more efficient internal combustion engines lead to more driving.

There are more examples.

Look at it this way: From 2000 to 20023, global oil consumption increased from 27.8 billion barrels annually to 36.6 billion barrels, and it is still increasing today.

In the same period, global coal production increased from 4.7 billion tons annually to 8.5 billion tons.

Meanwhile, renewables, mostly solar and wind, in 2023, accounted for more than 30 percent of global electricity consumption in 2023, up from 19 percent in 2000.

In short, even though the proportion of power supply from renewables is increasing, so is the consumption of fossil fuels.

So, Jevons Paradox challenges common assumptions about sustainability. While improvements in efficiency remain important for technological progress, these improvements alone will not significantly reduce overall resource consumption.

The phenomenon has implications for environmental policy, suggesting that efficiency standards must be coupled with other measures to achieve conservation goals.

The Jevons Paradox also highlights the complex relationship between technological progress and human behavior. As processes become more efficient, human ingenuity finds new ways to use the saved resources.

This behavioral response is known as the “rebound effect”. The rebound effect is the tendency of human beings to find additional uses for resources saved by technological improvements.

It is yet another demonstration of how economic and psychological factors can offset technological gains in efficiency.

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Bryce McIntyre, PhD, resides in San Andres. He holds a doctoral degree from Stanford University, Palo Alto, California, USA.